Lula Rallies Massive Support on Copacabana Ahead of Historic Runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters filled Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach on Saturday, aiming to provide President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with critical momentum on the final day before his presidential runoff against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro. Under a strong sun, the crowd dressed in red moved through the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in a carnival-like procession, signaling a determined push to close the race. This gathering represents the last major public display of strength for the incumbent before nearly 159 million Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday.

The path to this moment has been steep. Bolsonaro secured the first round on 4 October with 47% of the vote, edging out Lula who received 45%. Since democracy was restored in Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has ever reversed the trend to win the final election. Therefore, a Lula victory would mark a historic break from precedent. Recent polling indicates the two leaders are currently tied, making the final 48 hours decisive.

The atmosphere on the beach highlighted a sense of urgency among voters. Activists unfurled a large yellow and green banner with the message, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a homemade sign stating, "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva noted that recent street protests have shown "the people have woken up" and predicted Lula would secure more than 60% of the vote, although current surveys suggest the margin will be significantly tighter.

Analysts generally view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite, leveraging his father’s presidency from 2019 to 2022 and a platform focused on confronting violent crime. However, Lula has regained initiative in recent days amid scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. This development has helped the president climb in the polls and shift the narrative of the campaign.

For many participants, the stakes extend beyond standard political preference. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic voters fear that if his son wins, the former president could be freed or return to government. Brazilian press reports indicate that other plotters, who are now jailed or in exile, might receive senior military and police positions. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, stated that her opposition targets "Bolsonarismo" specifically, noting she lost four relatives due to neglect during the pandemic.

The crowd included many members of "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members formed after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, described the event as not a normal election. DJ Cammy Marinho, 49, said she had spent two weeks persuading former Bolsonaro supporters and abstainers to switch sides. Even young voters were present, such as 14-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva, who traveled from Duque de Caxias in his wheelchair holding a placard of support.

Bolsonaro supporters also took to the streets in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. Thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow football jerseys and waving both Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the country’s second-largest electorate and serves as a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led there by just under 5% in the first round. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., a 59-year-old shooting club owner, defended the security message, arguing that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to self-defense and his son would continue that policy. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, countered with a sign reading, "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts about Bolsonaro’s ability to curb crime given his documented ties to Rio’s paramilitary militias.