Experts Predict New Iran War Phase After Vote

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official, told CBC News that a renewed war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran appears almost inevitable after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections. He expects a third round of fighting to be more destructive than the first two, targeting Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and underwater communication lines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States and Israel have already fought two separate wars with Iran over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days in a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz, who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that President Donald Trump has "only bad and worse options" in the Persian Gulf. He warned that attacking the Islamic regime without a clear plan would draw the wider region into the conflict. He sees the current standoff as a temporary pause, with both sides holding off on fresh major strikes since the summer truce collapsed.

The conflict remains active despite the pause in large-scale air and missile strikes. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have pushed up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating "fake hits, mines and everything else."

Iranian officials are signaling demands for relief from sanctions, reparations, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation could come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports and other soft economic sites.

The human toll is heavy. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The U.S. has lost 21 service members, mostly in Gulf base strikes, and more than 70 Israelis are dead. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of "finishing the job" against the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz suggests a widening crisis could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government. However, he warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a limited diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.