Survey: Two-Thirds of Lebanese Shiites Back State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

A survey released in mid-October shows that 66.4% of Lebanese Shiites want Hezbollah's weapons handed to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% prefer the group keep them. Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll in September among 800 Shiite respondents. The results were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

The poll also found that 71.1% of respondents believe war and peace decisions belong solely to the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces registered at 78.5%, with 51.1% naming the army as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security. Hezbollah drew 16.5% on that question.

Views on Hezbollah's wartime performance were split. Some 67.4% said the group failed to meet its goals in the conflict with Israel or achieved only some of them, and 42.1% reported disappointment, anger, or concern about its leadership. Even so, 59.5% expressed some trust in Hezbollah, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. KAN's Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status within the Shiite community continue to sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

A contrasting May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found 87.5% of Shiite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with 7.9% supporting a handover. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel. The gap between the two polls raises questions about whether differences in wording or agenda shaped the results.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued Hezbollah's influence rests on its social and economic networks, political power, and the historical marginalization of Lebanon's Shiites. They also said intimidation has discouraged dissent within the community. In their assessment, weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army plus Western and Gulf financial support so the state can replace the services Hezbollah provides.

KAN pointed to signs of local wariness. Property owners in the southern city of Tyre reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. The group has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war broke out in March 2026.

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