Iran Strategy: Votel says strikes buy time but lack defined end state

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel said a new round of American and Israeli strikes against Iran can weaken the country's military assets but is unlikely to end the war. The former head of U.S. Central Command spoke with NPR's Leila Fadel about the objectives behind a potential post-election bombing campaign. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit in previous operations. Iran has demonstrated the ability to rebuild those systems, he said, meaning fresh attacks will mostly serve to buy time and punish Tehran rather than force a surrender.

Votel argued that Washington must first define a clear objective for the conflict. He stated that the United States needs to determine how it will declare the war finished. In his view, the goal centers on two specific issues: resolving the nuclear enrichment program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Once that end state is established, military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all be directed toward achieving it. He emphasized that military force is only one component of national power.

The general identified the financial front as the area showing the most visible progress. He cited reporting that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil, a result of the current blockade and sanctions. While this approach requires patience, Votel noted there is definite movement in that direction. He said the pressure on the financial side is helping to constrain Tehran's options.

Votel explained that U.S. aims are often difficult to read from the outside. He said much of the strategy centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil and other commerce to move freely. He added that this would help bring down gas and diesel prices at home. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. He also noted that Iran uses proxies to create regional instability, including connections to the Houthis across the Arabian Peninsula, but he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries.

On the military readiness front, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial. The ability to strike targets is not in question, he said. However, he identified missile defense as a potential constraint. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on the defensive interceptors that protect U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. In his assessment, offensive capability is currently sufficient, while defense faces a bit of a constraint.