Carriers Sail as Ballots Pass 21 Million

Americans voting early this month are doing so as the military sends fresh hardware to the Middle East and a court orders President Donald Trump to sit for a deposition in a $10 billion defamation suit. Nearly 21 million voters had cast ballots by mail or in person as of Oct. 23, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. Grocery costs remain on the front burner: ground beef hit $6.79 a pound in September, an 85% climb over a decade, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.

The path to the current posture runs through a series of discrete moves. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Israel this month to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A person briefed on U.S. and Israeli war planning told NPR the two countries are preparing for a possible attack on Iran after the midterms. Hegseth has since ordered a third aircraft carrier to the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country stands ready for diplomacy or war.

The deployment coincides with a surge in early turnout. Election Lab figures show the early vote grew by roughly 2 million in a single day. NPR's Saige Miller reported that participation in key battleground states is running well ahead of the last midterm cycle, with Democrats voting early at higher rates than Republicans and unaffiliated voters also taking part. Miller cautioned against reading the early numbers as a forecast of final results.

The calendar shapes the timing of any decision. President Trump will likely weigh military action after Nov. 3, according to NPR's Greg Myre, who said such a sequence would keep oil prices from jumping before voters go to the polls. Iranian officials have demanded formal control of the Strait of Hormuz and a withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region. Myre said the U.S. and Israel can inflict heavy damage but Iran has shown no sign of major concessions.

Two court actions are also moving. A federal judge in California has restricted pre-election field operations by the Department of Homeland Security, which says the work aims to identify noncitizens who allegedly voted illegally in nine states. A federal magistrate judge separately ruled that Trump must sit for a deposition in his $10 billion defamation case against the BBC and must comply with court rules or face sanctions. The case concerns a Panorama broadcast from late October 2024 that edited his Jan. 6 speech.

Grocery prices are part of the backdrop. Trump promised lower costs in his second term, and while some items have fallen, overall prices have risen on higher labor costs, tariffs and energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Eggs settled at $2.27 a dozen after hitting a record $6.23 in March 2025, and butter averaged $3.96 in September, down 17.3% from a year earlier on oversupply. Coffee remains 44% above its level two years ago even after tariffs on it were removed.

The deposition date is not settled. NPR's David Folkenflik said it is unclear whether Trump will appear, since he earlier canceled citing "matters of national importance" and proposed January instead. The BBC, which apologized for the splicing, wants to understand his state of mind during the speech, and BBC attorneys say more than 200 Jan. 6 defendants have said the speech motivated them. Election Day is Nov. 3.