Computer model favors Ohio State and Oklahoma in Week 10

The 2026 college football season enters Week 10 with a slate of close contests across major conferences. The SportsLine computer model, which simulates every FBS matchup 10,000 times, has released its predictions for the upcoming schedule. The algorithm has maintained an 80-77 record on its top-rated selections at betting sites since the start of the season.

The model identifies Ohio State as the primary recommendation for Saturday. The Buckeyes host Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. SportsLine projects Ohio State to cover the 7.5-point spread. The team is coming off a loss at USC, but the model favors the home team because Oregon's defense has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but three other Big Ten opponents. Ohio State has covered in 80% of its home games since the beginning of 2025.

Another key projection involves Oklahoma visiting Florida. The Sooners are listed as 6.5-point underdogs on a total line of 44.5. The model expects Oklahoma to cover the spread. Florida has lost three of its last four games, with each defeat coming by 19 points or more. Quarterback Aaron Philo was benched in the previous loss to Georgia after throwing two interceptions. His replacement, Tramell Jones, also committed two turnovers. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards with four passing touchdowns and zero turnovers in his last two games. Florida leads the SEC in penalty yards.

The computer model also predicts three upsets in matchups between ranked teams. The full slate of predictions covers every game in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The model projects the over to hit in 58% of simulations for the Oklahoma and Florida contest.

Several high-profile games feature tight spreads. In the SEC, Alabama travels to LSU as a 5.5-point favorite. Georgia visits Ole Miss, where the Rebels are 3.5-point favorites. Texas goes to Missouri, which is favored by 2.5 points. Outside the conference, No. 1 Miami visits No. 4 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 5.5-point favorites at home, seeking to avenge a loss to the Hurricanes last year.

West Coast matchups include a rivalry game between BYU and Utah. The third-ranked Utes are 5.5-point favorites at home. The Cougars have won the last three meetings in a series that spans more than 100 years. The model also includes picks for non-conference and other conference games on the schedule.

The schedule begins on Wednesday, Nov. 4, with Ball State visiting UMass. UMass is a 3-point favorite on a 48.5 total. Thursday features UTSA at FAU, where FAU is a 7-point favorite. Friday includes Virginia Tech at SMU, with SMU favored by 6 points. Nebraska visits Illinois, where the Illini are 4.5-point favorites.

Saturday, Nov. 7, is the main day of action. Notable spreads include Michigan hosting Michigan State, where the Wolverines are 13.5-point favorites. Kentucky visits Tennessee, with the Volunteers favored by 6.5 points. Cincinnati visits Houston, where the Cougars are 10.5-point favorites. UCLA visits Minnesota, where the Golden Gophers are 5.5-point favorites. Air Force visits Army, with Army favored by 3 points. Texas and Missouri play, as do Alabama and LSU. Oregon plays Ohio State, and Miami plays Notre Dame.