€70bn: The size of Ukraine's 2027 funding gap

European Union leaders will demand that Britain, Canada, and Japan increase their financial contributions to Ukraine. This push comes as Kyiv faces a €70 billion (£58 billion) funding shortfall in 2027. The EU argues that non-EU G7 members must shoulder more of the burden to support the country's defense and civilian needs.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham will meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa on 20 November. The meeting, a long-awaited EU-UK summit, will serve as the venue for this specific request. Von der Leyen will also address Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at an EU-Canada summit in Montreal next week, asking for similar support to cover the looming financial gap.

Ukraine's costs have risen as Russia escalates attacks, marking the fifth winter of the war. The European Commission states that the EU and its member states currently pay for 80% of Ukraine's financial needs. Brussels considers two-thirds to be a fair EU share, leaving the remaining third for other allies to fund. Von der Leyen told reporters last week that the EU will continue to lead but urgently needs other partners to step up.

The EU agreed to a €90 billion loan for Ukraine last year. This loan was intended to cover two-thirds of Kyiv's funding in 2026 and 2027. However, officials note that recent calls for extra aid at international meetings have not been answered. While the UK, Canada, and Japan are the primary targets, EU officials may also look to Switzerland, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand for additional resources.

The timing is sensitive for the British government. Chancellor John Healey is preparing his first budget next week. He must weigh calls for increased spending against rising borrowing costs and a darkening economic outlook. Healey stated earlier this month that he is working on different ways to step up support for Ukraine, including military, diplomatic, and economic measures.

Britain has committed £25 billion to Ukraine, including £16 billion in military aid. The Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker ranks the UK as the fourth largest donor, behind the US, Germany, and France. Weighted by GDP, the UK's contribution stands at 0.86% of national income. France contributes 1.1% and Germany 1.5%. Denmark and Estonia lead all donors at 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. The UK's position aligns more closely with France and Germany once their contributions to EU programs are removed.

Leaders are also expected to conclude three agreements at the November summit. These include a food and animal health deal to reduce Brexit paperwork, a linkage of EU and UK emissions trading schemes to protect British industry, and a youth mobility scheme for those aged 18 to 30. The mobility scheme would allow young people to live, work, travel, and study across the Channel.

A point of friction remains university tuition fees. The UK wants to charge EU students the international rate, roughly four times the domestic fee. The EU wants to restore pre-Brexit rules where EU students paid home rates. The commission proposed deferring this issue to technical talks within six months of the summit to avoid stalling the leaders' meeting.

Senior EU sources believe they retain negotiating power. They argue that the food and emissions deals will not take effect until a youth mobility agreement is accepted, including on fees. One EU diplomat described the three elements as a gift to the UK, but not a massive one. A second diplomat noted that there is no clear majority among the 27 member states to drop the fee issue for six months.