Satellites Confirm 9,000 Hectares of New Poppy Fields in Balochistan

Satellite analysis by the British firm Alcis identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province during 2026. This expansion represents a substantial shift in global opium production following the Taliban's 2022 ban on narcotics in Afghanistan. David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on illicit drugs, stated that the remote borderlands of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan have become a global center for opium production. The new growth is concentrated primarily in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah in southwestern Pakistan.

The increase in cultivation is driven largely by Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand provinces who have crossed into Pakistan to lease land. These growers bring capital and expertise, investing millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and sharing profits with local landowners. Mansfield noted that poppies can be harvested twice a year, and many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. He described this expansion as a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

Pakistan's Interior Ministry and the Balochistan provincial government have not responded to requests for comment regarding the findings. Islamabad has historically denied reports of opium cultivation, asserting that any crops found have been destroyed. However, Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, alleged that cultivation is rampant and backed by senior military officials and pro-government power brokers who take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected this claim, stating that cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year. Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of such eradication.

Local residents attribute the shift to economic necessity and insecurity. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, said that drought and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming. He noted that the demand for poppies far exceeds that for fruits, and the income is correspondingly higher. An anonymous farmer in the same district alleged that growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. The farmer claimed that when media pressure rises, growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort.

A similar pattern has emerged in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers, often using family ties to secure land. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields using drip irrigation, a costly investment that suggests growers expected little risk of eradication. Mansfield described a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in both countries. Iranian authorities have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop due to the ongoing war with the United States and Israel.

Inside Afghanistan, opium production remains concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output. Cultivation in southwestern provinces almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, though it stayed limited and concealed within wheat fields. Mansfield warned that a Taliban directive barring home searches for poppy without a court order may encourage farmers to expand beyond walled compounds. He cautioned that if this trend continues, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027.